Puzzles

How often have we seen Major League hitters with a groundball-heavy batted ball profile make significant changes to their approach?

Looking at individual hitter seasons since 2015 (the beginning of the Statcast era), 200 hitters had seasons of at least a 45% groundball rate or higher (150 PA minimum), with at least one of those seasons being at 50% or higher (groundball-heavy profile), before having any seasons with a groundball rate below 45%.

Of those 200…

• 40% eventually went on to have at least one season below 45% groundball rate

• 34% eventually went below a 45% groundball rate, without having any more seasons at, or above, the 50% mark

• 22.5% eventually went below a 45% groundball rate, without having any more seasons at, or above, the 45% mark (sustained profile change)

For those that hit the ball hard, yet frequently on the ground, have we seen any make profile changes while regaining similar quality of contact? A question posed by Eno Sarris on the Rates and Barrels podcast episode from June 10, 2024.

In this sample of hitters, 46 had at least one season with a 50% or higher groundball rate AND an Average Exit Velocity of at least 90 MPH. Hitters who had any seasons with a groundball rate below 45% before meeting this criteria were removed. 90 MPH being arbitrarily chosen due to it being roughly 60th percentile in a given year.

Of these 46…

• 14 (30%) eventually went on to have at least one season with lower than a 45% groundball rate AND an Average Exit Velocity of at least 90 MPH

• 8 of the 14 hitters never had any more seasons at or above a 50% groundball rate

• 5 of the 14 hitters never had any more seasons at or above a 45% groundball rate, with all 5 sustaining at least a 90 MPH Average Exit Velocity during their remaining seasons

• HOWEVER, Ryan McMahon is the only hitter of the 5 to sustain the contact quality for more than one season (3 seasons)

Hope is far from lost when a hitter begins his career with a groundball-heavy profile. I’d have to do some re-reading, but I believe batted ball rate stats tend to fluctuate by a significant amount year-over-year. And the percentages here show plenty of hitters have successfully made changes to put the ball in the air more frequently. With that being said, for a hitter beginning his career with heavy groundball tendencies, the odds aren’t in their favor and teams need to have a plan for these hitters if they are going to eventually move towards a more optimal batted ball profile.

And like a lot of things in this game, it’s necessary to evaluate batted ball profiles on a case-by-case basis. While a small sample, it’s not very often that those who hit the ball hard are able to regain similar levels of contact quality when moving away from their original groundball-heavy profile. Some of that power gets sapped. From a production standpoint, maybe these hitters would be better off sticking to what works for them to hit the ball hard? Even if it comes at the cost of hitting groundballs more frequently.

*Batted ball rates are from Fangraphs. Worth noting given the difference between batted ball classifications for Fangraphs and Baseball Savant*